Pick Pilot.
Scenario Studio

Pressure-test every move before you commit.

Would a trade or waiver pickup help more than keeping your roster? Compare the possible outcomes for your league, see which categories change, and check confidence, assumptions, and data freshness before making the move yourself.

→ Open the web betaSee pricing

Scenario Studio

Would this trade help your week?

Week 12. Head-to-head basketball, nine categories.

Illustrative example

Category win probability

Compare keeping your roster with making the trade.

CategoryKeep rosterMake trade
PTS65%72%
REB46%41%
AST60%66%
STL53%55%
BLK43%38%
3PM65%71%
FG%51%49%
FT%75%83%
TO60%62%

Higher means a better chance of winning that category, including TO, where fewer turnovers wins.

What changed

The trade favors points, assists, threes, and free throws. Rebounds and blocks get weaker. Decide whether that tradeoff fits your matchup.

Illustrative matchup win probability

56.8% to 64%

A gain of 7.2 percentage points, not a guaranteed win.

Assumptions to check

  • Same opponent, week, and league rules in both comparisons.
  • The trade can be completed before the relevant lineup locks.
  • Player availability, recent form, and usable games need checking before a real decision.

These fixed numbers explain the comparison; they are not computed from a real roster. Actual Monte Carlo results depend on the inputs and disclosed run settings. Matchup win probability is not the average of the category probabilities.

Illustrative league data, not a customer result or a published accuracy claim. In the product, check sources, input freshness, confidence, and assumptions alongside the result.

Your league platform remains the source of truth for rosters, rules, and completed moves. Pick Pilot does not submit the trade for you. Read the methodology and limits.

Compare
Make a move or keep your roster
Check
Data freshness and assumptions
Decide
You complete the move on your league platform
Tools for your team

What's inside

Monte Carlo simulation
01
Explore possible matchup outcomes using your supported league settings. Simulation detail is chosen for the question and shown with the result, with no fixed run-count or speed promise. Unusual formats stop or show an explicit assumption.
Side-by-side rosters
02
Compare supported adds, drops, and trades with keeping your roster. Changes that only rearrange your lineup are not yet covered; we do not invent an improvement for them.
Find the categories in reach
03
Per-category win probability and uncertainty show which parts of the matchup are stable, swingable, or too close to call.
Saved scenarios
04
Save a supported scenario and revisit it when the matchup changes. Protected share links and exports are available only in selected Elite tools, not for every scenario.
Keep exploring

See also

AnalyticsAI CoachPremium charts
FAQ

Common questions

01What does 'league-aware' actually mean?
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We use the category list, scoring formula, roster slots, and waiver settings the connector can verify. Missing or unsupported rules must be disclosed or block the run rather than fall back silently.
02Are simulations deterministic?
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Where replay is supported, runs record their inputs and random seed so the calculation can be repeated. A later run may change when the roster, schedule, availability, or recent player form changes; that change stays in the decision record.
03How are confidence intervals computed?
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The result includes an interval with the calculation method and assumptions. Check what the interval measures: simulation sampling error is not the same as uncertainty about a future result. Not every tool shows the full distribution or offers an export.

Ready to use Scenario Studio?

Web beta. No paid checkout; provider coverage and import timing vary by league.

→ Open the web betaSee pricing